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What would the perfection of anti-aging technologies mean?
IMHO I would mean that one can reliably avoid dying of aging-related issues at modest costs. I wouldn’t do much for accidents, and that means a lifespan of 7000 years on average. Right now the closest thing we have to a reliable antiaging method is caloric restriction. combined with exercise, careful diet. Some supplements and drugs may also help but they are not well documented expect it will be another 30–40 years before those are reliable enough to be covered by insurance—and that will probably buy folks only 10–20 extra years. At this stage, anything you do is largely a gamble. It appears likely we will see a few people living past 120 before 2100.Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? It is plausible someone alive today will live past 150 years.
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
There already exist genetically engineered mice that live 50% longer than other mice and in another 20 years that may well be up to double the typical lifespan of well cared for mice. Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035? By 2060 we will probably see some countries with life expectancy over 100 years. When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?
I would expect it will be another 200–250 years before we are seeing widespread use of medical methods that reliably and accessibly, result in folks living more than 200 years. Before that, we’ll see a period where these methods are hit or miss. Much of what folks try will not work that well. We already see folks like Bob Delmonteque
Who looked better in his 80’s that most people ever do. The thing is doing that reliably within parameters that are broadly accessible may be at least 50 years away. Doing that well for extreme (200 year+) longevity will a tricky, multi-generational effort.
This stuff will be very socially disruptive.
Here is a list of longevity-related predictions on Metaculus that will be updated. Folks living 150+ years will rapidly become the dominant economic force in the world. There will be huge friction between them and people resistant to these technologies. We when we have the first folks living 1000+ years among us, I expect they will be very, very private about that part of their lives. Tim Leary thought this would be a real mess if Space migration and intelligence increase technologies are not also developed.
A long time, judging from past efforts.
Our neolithic ancestors had a mean life expectancy at birth of around 50 years. We added 20 years to that through the dramatic intervention of washing with soap, and to lesser extent antibiotics and vaccination. In the 20th century, we added another 10 years through the surgical repair of aging hearts, and medications that came from extensive research into the physiology and cellular metabolism.
We got a measurable improvement in life expectancy by kicking the cigarette habit, but we’re ignoring other life-extending techniques like cutting down on calories and exercising regularly. So it’s not just life extension we want, but rather effortless life extension that lets us continue with our destructive habits.
Evolution has not equipped our cells with mechanisms to last forever. Fixing that is going to require a complete understanding of the genetic program carried in our DNA, coupled with a way to revise that program. Our first success might be to custom-design children who live a lot longer than we do because their DNA is new and improved, but that won’t help us “wild” phenotype humans. Modifying all the cells in our body is a lot harder than modifying one egg cell. I don’t think we’re going to extend lifespan significantly for any human alive today. Sorry, no magic wands either.